tradingat50
Live paper test since 9 Oct 2026

SPX Morning Reversal Strategy

This strategy waits for a sharp move in SPX's first half hour after the 09:30 ET open, then for signs that the move is running out of steam, and buys a 0DTE option betting on a partial pullback. Most mornings there's no setup.

Today

Done for today: closed at the afternoon exit, -$1,740.

Status as of 26 Oct 2026. Turn on JavaScript for live updates.

+$915net, 1 contract a trade
6 of 9trades made money
+$913average win
-$1,522average loss

9 trades so far. 6 made money and the record is +$915. That's far too few to judge.

Running P&L of every tradeCumulative profit and loss across 9 trades, ending at +$915.$0$500$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,00014 Oct: +$67015 Oct: +$87015 Oct: +$1,15016 Oct: -$1,41520 Oct: +$89020 Oct: -$1,41021 Oct: +$83023 Oct: +$1,07026 Oct: -$1,74014 Oct26 Oct

Running P&L, one dot per trade (green won, red lost). Paper trades filled at the real ask, sold at the real bid.

How it works

The first half hour of the session is when the overnight orders get worked through, and SPX sometimes lurches further than the news justifies. This strategy waits for one of those lurches to run out of steam and bets on part of it coming back.

  1. Spot a sharp move. I watch SPX's one-minute candles during the first half hour only. A setup needs a fast, outsized move: the index has to travel a long way over a handful of consecutive minutes, not just drift there over a quarter of an hour.

    The very first print of the day is left out of that measurement. SPX's 09:30 price is partly yesterday's (it's printed before all of its stocks have traded), and an early version of this engine kept mistaking that catch-up for a real move.

  2. Wait for it to stall. I never fade a move while it's still running. After the sharp move, I give it a few more candles to show a rejection: a candle that pushes to a new extreme and then closes well back from it, leaving a long wick. If no candle like that turns up within a few minutes, the move is left alone.
  3. Bet on the pullback. At the close of the rejection candle, I buy a same-day SPX option at the money, against the move: a put after a sharp rise, a call after a sharp drop. I pay the real asking price; there's no waiting for a discount here, because the opportunity is gone within a minute or two.

    Only one position at a time, and nothing new is opened once the first half hour is over.

  4. Get out. The profit target is set on the option's own price, not on the index. If it isn't reached, the trade is closed in the afternoon.

    In testing, stops on this pattern mostly cut trades that went on to recover, while the losers were slow fades rather than sudden blow-ups, so I don't use one. That makes every trade's worst case the full price paid for the option.

  5. The control. A second version runs alongside on the same mornings and picks its side at random. If this strategy can't beat a coin flip over time, the setup isn't adding anything. Half days and holidays are handled the same way as on my other strategies.

Why the exact numbers aren't here. I've described what each step does and why, but I've deliberately left out the settings that make it a complete system: the thresholds, distances, sizes, targets and timings. This page is a record of my own paper testing, not a set of rules for anyone to follow, and nothing on it is advice to trade. If you trade anything based on what you read here, the decisions and the results are entirely your own.

How often it trades

Since 9 Oct 2026 there have been 12 sessions. It traded on 7 of them (9 trades in all). On the rest there was no setup in the first half hour. Most of the work is deciding not to trade.

won lost no setup

What one trade risks

$1,620typical cost of one contract
-$1,740worst single trade
-$1,935deepest drop from a high
1longest losing run (trades)

Everything here is one contract. The most a single trade can lose is what was paid for it, which so far has been at most $2,140. A typical trade was open for about 69 minutes.

Every trade

DateOptionBoughtSoldResultEnded at
26 Oct 7655 put $17.80 09:36 $0.40 15:00 -$1,740 afternoon exit
23 Oct 7620 call $21.40 09:37 $32.10 10:46 +$1,070 target
21 Oct 7725 call $16.00 09:34 $24.30 11:29 +$830 target
20 Oct 7690 put $14.50 09:55 $0.40 15:00 -$1,410 afternoon exit
20 Oct 7675 call $16.20 09:45 $25.10 09:52 +$890 target
16 Oct 7740 call $14.20 09:40 $0.05 15:00 -$1,415 afternoon exit
15 Oct 7670 call $19.90 09:56 $31.40 10:01 +$1,150 target
15 Oct 7695 put $16.60 09:41 $25.30 09:53 +$870 target
14 Oct 7775 put $13.10 09:35 $19.80 09:57 +$670 target
Total9 trades+$915

Times are New York time. One contract per trade, no commissions.

What makes me doubt it

What would make me trade it with real money

When I'll give up on it

If it's below zero after 30 trades, or no better than the random-side version by then, it goes to the graveyard with the others.

Changes along the way

Questions

What is a 0DTE option?

An option that expires the same day it is traded. It is cheap and moves fast, and it can lose all of its value within hours.

Why bet against a strong move?

Sharp moves in the first half hour are often the market absorbing a burst of opening orders. When the push visibly stalls, part of it often gives back. Often isn't always, which is why every trade is published.

Is this a signal service?

No. It is a record of my own paper testing, published as it happens. I don't sell signals, and nothing here is a recommendation to trade.

Are these real trades?

They are paper trades on real quotes: bought at a real ask or my limit, sold at the real bid, one contract each, without commissions. Real fills could be worse.

Paper trades, filled at real market bid/ask quotes, one contract each, no commissions. The trade table is rebuilt every night; the Today box updates live. This site records my own testing and trading. It isn't financial advice. 0DTE options can go to zero within minutes.