tradingat50
Live paper test since 12 Oct 2026

SPX Premarket Fade Strategy

This strategy reads how the market traded in the last half hour before the 09:30 ET open. On the days that set up, it takes the other side of the premarket's late move with a 0DTE option, and it's out by lunchtime. Most days don't set up.

Today

Done for today: closed at the stop, -$730.

Status as of 26 Oct 2026. Turn on JavaScript for live updates.

+$1,920net, 1 contract a trade
2 of 4trades made money
+$1,635average win
-$675average loss

4 trades so far. 2 made money and the record is +$1,920. That's far too few to judge.

Running P&L of every tradeCumulative profit and loss across 4 trades, ending at +$1,920.$0$1,000$2,000$3,000$4,00015 Oct: +$1,84016 Oct: +$1,43019 Oct: -$62026 Oct: -$73015 Oct26 Oct

Running P&L, one dot per trade (green won, red lost). Paper trades filled at the real ask, sold at the real bid.

How it works

Before the 09:30 open, SPY trades in a thin early market. This strategy looks at how SPY behaved in the half hour before the bell, and only trades on mornings where the premarket was undecided.

  1. Build the premarket picture. From the early morning onwards, I build SPY's volume-weighted average price for the premarket. It's a simple running answer to "where has most of the trading happened so far?"
  2. Sort the morning. In the last half hour before the open I check, at regular intervals, which side of that average SPY is on.

    If it stays on one side the whole time, the premarket has a clear direction, and those mornings are skipped. If it's been on both sides, the premarket is undecided, and only those mornings go forward. Most days aren't undecided.

  3. Take the other side. On an undecided morning I look at which way SPY drifted in the last few minutes before the bell, and bet against it. Late drift on an undecided morning tends to be noise that gets reversed once the real session starts.

    The trade is an at-the-money same-day SPX option, bought at the real asking price just after the open. Quotes that are obviously broken in the first seconds are ignored, and if a clean price isn't available within a few minutes of the open, the day is skipped rather than entered late.

  4. Get out. Three exits, whichever comes first: a profit target, a stop, or a time exit around lunchtime. By the afternoon it's always out.
  5. The control. A second version trades the same undecided mornings with the same exits, but picks its side at random. The exits alone make money on volatile mornings, so this strategy only counts if it does better than that. The rules were written down before the first live session, and they don't change based on how it's doing.

Why the exact numbers aren't here. I've described what each step does and why, but I've deliberately left out the settings that make it a complete system: the thresholds, distances, sizes, targets and timings. This page is a record of my own paper testing, not a set of rules for anyone to follow, and nothing on it is advice to trade. If you trade anything based on what you read here, the decisions and the results are entirely your own.

How often it trades

Since 12 Oct 2026 there have been 11 sessions. It traded on 4 of them. On 7 the premarket didn't set up. Most of the work is deciding not to trade.

won lost no setup

What one trade risks

$1,655typical cost of one contract
-$730worst single trade
-$1,350deepest drop from a high
2longest losing run (trades)

Everything here is one contract. The most a single trade can lose is what was paid for it, which so far has been at most $1,840. A typical trade was open for about 58 minutes.

Every trade

DateOptionBoughtSoldResultEnded at
26 Oct 7650 put $18.00 09:31 $10.70 09:53 -$730 stop
19 Oct 7700 put $15.10 09:31 $8.90 10:15 -$620 stop
16 Oct 7755 put $13.90 09:31 $28.20 11:06 +$1,430 target
15 Oct 7685 call $18.40 09:31 $36.80 10:43 +$1,840 target
Total4 trades+$1,920

Times are New York time. One contract per trade, no commissions.

What makes me doubt it

What would make me trade it with real money

When I'll give up on it

If it's below zero after 20 trades, or no better than the random-side version by then, it goes to the graveyard with the others.

Changes along the way

Questions

What is a 0DTE option?

An option that expires the same day it is traded. It is cheap and moves fast, and it can lose all of its value within hours.

What is the premarket?

US stocks and ETFs like SPY trade before the official 09:30 open, from early morning. Volume is thin, but the way prices drift into the open can say something about the first hours of the day.

Is this a signal service?

No. It is a record of my own paper testing, published as it happens. I don't sell signals, and nothing here is a recommendation to trade.

Are these real trades?

They are paper trades on real quotes: bought at a real ask or my limit, sold at the real bid, one contract each, without commissions. Real fills could be worse.

Paper trades, filled at real market bid/ask quotes, one contract each, no commissions. The trade table is rebuilt every night; the Today box updates live. This site records my own testing and trading. It isn't financial advice. 0DTE options can go to zero within minutes.